AESOs Emergency Alert, Generation shortage, and more...

Source: Arcus Power Corps | · LINKEDIN · | January 15, 2024

We hope you all had a safe and warm weekend despite the extreme weather alert that was in effect. The Arcus team, including our Power Market and AI experts, had their analytical lens on and put our optimized price and CPD model to use as we analyzed the events of the weekend.

As many of you may have noticed, #AESO issued an emergency alert due to the anticipated higher-than-usual demand, it's not surprising that many thought demand had exceeded record levels. However with hydro at only 10% capacity, solar and storage at 0%, and wind at less than 8%, this can be attributed more to a generation shortfall.

On Friday, our price model forecasted that the weekend would see higher prices, which was observed on Saturday. However, with our CPD model optimized by the price forecast, we anticipated demand values that were below the month-to-day peak, so we chose not to issue a drop alert. The benefit of this is avoiding unnecessary shutdowns and incurring opportunity costs.