IRENA Predicts LCOE of Solar will Drop to $0.01-0.05 by Mid Century
Source: Emiliano Bellini · PV MAGAZINE · | November 13, 2019
The latest study published by the International Renewable Energy Agency says the average solar electricity cost of $0.085/kWh produced by projects commissioned last year is set to fall to $0.048 next year, and $0.02-0.08 by 2030.
IRENA has repeated its prediction of 8.5 TW of global solar capacity by 2050. - Image: blickpixel/Pixabay
Solar will see its share of global power generation rise to 13% by 2030 and a quarter by 2050, according to the Future of Solar PV report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
Improved PV technology will drive the production of ever cheaper solar electricity, according to the agency. The study notes the historic prices recorded in national PV generation capacity auctions indicate solar power could be produced for an average $0.048/kWh next year, a figure 44% lower than the cost of solar produced by generation facilities commissioned last year.
“Recent record low auction outcomes for solar PV in Abu Dhabi, Chile, Dubai, Mexico, Peru and Saudi Arabia have shown that an LCOE [levelized cost of energy] of $0.03/kWh is possible in a wide variety of national contexts,” the report stated.
The report forecasts the solar project development cost per kilowatt of capacity installed will fall from $1,210 last year to $340-834 in 2030 and $165-481 in 2050. The price of solar electricity is expected to fall further from an average $0.085/kWh last year to $0.02-0.08/kWh by the end of the next decade and $0.01-0.05 by mid century.