Is ‘Net Zero’ Our Best Hope For Curbing Emissions Or A ‘Dangerous Trap’ Of Self-Delusion?

Source: University of Houston Energy Fellows · FORBES · | January 5, 2022

Source: Picture taken on January 16, 2019 shows the Niederaussem lignite fired power plant in ... [+] DPA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

After the lackluster results of the United Nations-sponsored climate talks in Scotland late last year, our approach to climate change has shifted from ambition to aspiration.

Expect to see more companies touting — and more lenders funding — aspirational “net zero” plans for eliminating carbon emissions. Many of the plans rely on models that increasingly reflect wishful thinking rather than reality. 

The 200 countries who attended the COP26 conference in Glasgow were asked to cut greenhouse-gas releases by half in 2030 and reduce them to zero by 2050. If that were to happen, there’s still a chance we could limit the rise in global temperatures to the 1.5 degrees Celsius that climate scientists say is critical for avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global warming.

But the COP26 conference also made it clear that chance is slim and growing slimmer. Right now, current pledges won’t achieve the goal. A new UN report found commitments from the 2015 climate conference in Paris would put us at 2.7 degrees. Even with additional pledges made in the past six years, we’re still likely to come in above 2 degrees.