Liebreich: Net Zero Will Be Harder Than You Think – And Easier. Part II: Easier

Source: Michael Liebreich | · BLOOMBERGNEF · | February 22, 2024

Welcome to the second part of my two-part article exploring the bull and bear cases for the net-zero transition.

In September last year, I laid out the bear case, highlighting the Five Horsemen of the Transition that will make achieving net zero difficult, perhaps impossible. By way of reminder, these were: poor economics of clean solutions beyond wind, solar and batteries; inadequacy of our current electrical grid; soaring demand for critical minerals; political and social inertia; and regulatory capture and predatory delay. Five formidable challenges.

I finished that piece by noting that the Five Horsemen of the Transition were not necessarily showstoppers – each of them might be overcome with the right leadership, focus, innovation and resources.

Now it is time to present the bull case – the five forces even more powerful than the Five Horsemen which give cause for optimism. Not powerful enough, in all likelihood, to get us to net zero in 2050 and hold the temperature increase to 1.5C, but powerful enough to get us to net zero by 2070 and keep to a Paris-compliant “well below 2C”.

Say hello to the Five Superheroes of the Transition.

Superhero 1: Exponential Growth

Twenty years ago, in 2004, it took an entire year to install a single gigawatt of solar PV. By 2010, it took the world one month to install a gigawatt. By 2016, one week. Last year saw single days on which a gigawatt of solar PV was installed.