Hydrogen at Risk of Being the Great Missed Opportunity of the Energy Transition

Source: | · T&D WORLD · | June 15, 2022

Source: T&D World

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century. 

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. “Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.” 

According to Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolyzers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyzer capacity of 3100 GW. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today. 

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop. 

Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be US$ 6.8 trillion, with an additional US$ 180 billion spent on hydrogen pipelines and US$ 530 billion on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts.