Hydrogen's role in our energy future

Source: David Hart | · LINKEDIN · | October 19, 2023

Part 1: A chaotic energy transition

Our current energy system is based on repeatedly-patched infrastructure built for wood, coal, oil and gas, with inevitable incumbents, vested interests, sunk costs and legacy regulatory and market frameworks. Where once nations owned and ran the systems, enabling at least some semblance of optimisation, now we face a mix of markets: more- or less-regulated, partially integrated, with technology and needs evolving faster than the support structures can keep up. And we face a climate crisis, of our own making, which will require massive system change if we are to come close to solving it.

We need to move as fast to a clean energy system as we feasibly can: upgrading or replacing old technology and infrastructure, training people to build, install and maintain it, and replacing the fuels we use in it. We need to change lifestyle patterns and expectations, and strive to make energy accessible, secure, affordable and clean.

Evidence suggests that in a long-term ‘optimised’ world, we can achieve a low-emissions, low-impact, affordable energy system based primarily on electricity and hydrogen. What we don’t know is how to get there.

It appears that change will be slow, cost money, and risk energy security. It will certainly shake up major incumbent industries and geopolitics.

We have been through hydrogen ‘hype cycles’ in the past. My 30 years in the industry has exposed me to two major ones – one built on the late 90s/early ‘noughties’ tech boom, and a smaller one that fizzled with the 2008 financial crisis. Some commentators claim we are seeing another one right now. What I believe we are seeing is the seeds of a new energy system starting to germinate. Unfortunately, it’s hard to know if we are sowing the seeds in the right places, or giving them enough fertiliser. Will they thrive or shrivel in the presence of other seedlings of different types?